Manitoba businesses are facing a period of sustained uncertainty that is making it harder to plan, invest, and grow, according to the 2025 Manitoba Business Outlook Survey released by the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce.
Across the province, businesses say they are feeling the effects of trade disruptions, tariffs, and shifting global trade dynamics. The uncertainty is no longer theoretical. It is already showing up in day-to-day operations, from rising input costs to supply chain delays and postponed hiring decisions.
Four out of five Manitoba businesses report concern about the impact of trade disruptions over the next year. Nearly two-thirds say U.S. trade tensions and tariffs have already negatively affected their operations. That pressure is especially pronounced in rural Manitoba, where nearly nine out of ten businesses report concern about trade disruptions.
“Manitoba businesses are navigating a period of sustained uncertainty that is making it harder to plan for the future,” said Chuck Davidson, President and CEO of the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce. “Trade disruptions, rising costs, and labour constraints are compounding pressures across sectors, particularly for rural and export-dependent businesses.”
For many employers, the most immediate impact of trade tensions is cost. Among businesses affected by U.S. trade disruptions, 76 per cent report increased costs for materials, components, and equipment. Businesses also point to supply chain disruptions and growing uncertainty around hiring, financial planning, and investment decisions.
That uncertainty is influencing business behaviour more broadly. More than three-quarters of Manitoba businesses say economic uncertainty is affecting their hiring, financial planning, or investment decisions. In response, many businesses report delaying hiring, investment, or expansion decisions, adjusting pricing, or sourcing more inputs domestically to reduce risk.
Despite these challenges, Manitoba businesses are holding steady but not necessarily moving forward with confidence. Over the next 12 months, 55 per cent of businesses expect their workforce to remain about the same, while 30 per cent anticipate growth.
The survey also highlights how rising costs continue to constrain growth. The cost of doing business was cited by 57 per cent of respondents as the top barrier to growth, followed by labour availability and trade-related uncertainty.
Labour shortages are adding further pressure. Nearly half of businesses report having to increase wages or offer additional incentives to attract and retain workers, driving up operating costs and limiting expansion opportunities. Many employers say access to skilled labour is just as difficult (or more difficult) than it was two years ago.
Federal immigration policy changes are also being felt. More than one in four businesses report negative impacts already, primarily due to reduced access to skilled workers and longer staffing timelines, with many indicating the full effects have yet to be felt.
When asked what governments can do to improve competitiveness and reduce uncertainty, businesses point first to removing barriers within Canada. More than three-quarters of respondents say eliminating interprovincial trade barriers should be a top priority. Half do not believe Manitoba is currently competitive with other provinces.
Businesses also identified expansion of the Port of Churchill and investment in new clean energy projects as top strategic priorities to support long-term provincial economic growth.
Beyond economic policy, quality-of-life factors emerged as critical to Manitoba’s ability to attract and retain workers. More than half of businesses said improving public safety and community well-being should be a top priority, alongside access to health care and infrastructure investment.
The 2025 Manitoba Business Outlook Survey was conducted by Leger on behalf of the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce between Nov. 17 and Dec. 17, 2025. The survey included responses from 157 Manitoba business decision-makers across sectors and regions.
